Michael Fish: Storm Warning

Interview with Michael Fish, published on the BBC Kent website July 2007
Published in BBC County Life Magazine, autumn 2007
Broadcast on BBC Radio Kent as part of the 'Remembering the Great Storm' documentary

Think of the storm and you think of Michael Fish's famously mis-interpreted forecast. So, in search of the fact behind the myth, we spoke to the man himself...

Poor old Michael Fish. I mean, how would you feel if you were held up as the national scapegoat for mis-forecasting the storm of the century? Even worse, what if you’d done no such thing?

Perhaps then, you can begin to understand why the now-retired forecaster is somewhat tired of having to defend himself, now 20 years after the event.

So, just for the record then Michael, what was all the fuss about?

I do distinctly recall going on television and saying categorically ‘baton down the hatches, there’s some extremely stormy weather on the way’. If that isn’t a good forecast and a good warning, I don’t know what is.

As far as I was concerned there wasn’t even a problem. It [my forecast] wasn’t even the evening before – it was another occasion and I was just linking to an item on the news about a hurricane that might be affecting Florida and I said – and in fact Florida has been craftily edited out of the clip – I said quite innocently and quite correctly that the hurricane wasn’t going to affect Florida, nothing whatever to do with the UK.

It was completely out of context, at a different time talking about a completely different thing.

The ferocity of the winds was picked up very well by our forecasters in Bracknell. They issued gale warnings up to severe gale and storm force 11 even before the event so that was well annotated. What wasn’t, was the track of the storm, which took it a little bit further over the land.

So was it a hurricane or not?

A hurricane is a tropical storm. It can only form in the tropics and can only affect the tropics. It has to be spawned with a sea temperature of at least 28 degrees. However what we did see was occasional ‘hurricane-strength’ winds.

And it wasn’t just the winds that were unusual was it?

There were remarkable rises in temperature, in some cases up to 10, even 12 degrees C in the space of only 20 to 30 minutes. Likewise we had some huge rises in pressure – of 25 mille bars in some places – again in just a few minutes. Although you think of low pressure causing strong winds - it wasn’t. It was an extremely rapid rise in pressure that was more the cause of the winds than anything else.

But the truth is that the Met Office didn’t expect the storm to make land-fall?

We had picked up that there would be this vicious storm four or five days in advance. But one of the problems is that we have a computer which has a numerical model and we use that entirely to do the forecasts. Because it’s a global model, a very small error doesn’t necessarily show up. The difference in track was between going up the English Channel to 50 miles further north and crossing the south east of the country – and on a global scale that is a minute error. Unfortunately of course to the man on the ground it makes all the difference.

I know that the Met Office issued timely warning for sea areas hours in advance but I also know that there was a problem because a strike of the French meteorological service or communications people. We had no information whatsoever [from them] so we didn’t know where the storm was and how intense it was until it got too close for comfort.

So how have forecasting methods changed since then?

In the last 20 years, the accuracy of forecasting has improved by about 5 per cent, which is a big margin. Technology has moved on – we’ve got bigger and more powerful computers. We have more pieces of equipment – we have buoys, we have satellites now.

Every few months things move on and the forecasts become more accurate. Because of the storm there was some additional funding which otherwise may not have been available.

And is it right that lives were probably saved by the fact that people were ignorant of the approaching storm?

Yes, it was a blessing in disguise. Even if we had warned people about the severity of the winds, they couldn’t have stopped the damage to their fences and roofs and trees but they might, in the process [of trying] killed themselves. I think it was a case of ignorance is bliss. They were better safe than sorry tucked up in bed than trying to do stupid things outside.

How would you explain the catastrophic loss of trees during the night?

The damage caused in 1987 wasn’t really anything to do with the wind, it was just an unfortunate set of circumstances. Firstly, had it been a week or two later, there would probably have been hardly any damage at all – at least not to trees. It was an unusually mild autumn and the trees were still in leaf when they shouldn’t have been so they offered much bigger wind resistance.

Secondly it had been an exceptionally wet autumn so the root systems were in soggy mud and couldn’t hold on and thirdly the wind came from a different direction. Trees in this country are braced against the prevailing wind which is south westerly. This particular wind came from the south and south east. If you put all those factors together even the best of trees will fall over because they are simply not prepared for the circumstances and they probably could have fallen over in much lighter winds.

How likely are we to see another similar storm in the near future?

Chances of just such a storm happening again are once every 200 years. But one of the things with global warming is that severe storms such as this will get more and more frequent as time goes on. These things do happen and will continue to happen at ever increasing frequency.

Radio Documentary: 'Remembering the Great Storm of 1987'

To mark the 20th anniversary of the Great Storm, I recorded and produced a 30-minute documentary programme for BBC Radio Kent.

Broadcast: 16th October 2007 and again on 21st October
Available also on the BBC Kent website

Listen to our 30 minute documentary, recalling the drama of that violent night - and the aftermath. Hear from those involved in the rescue in Dover Harbour; the fireman called to attend to the ferry that had ran aground; the man whose roof disappeared; the head gardener whose life's work was destroyed overnight - and many more. This is their story:

Documentary: Remembering The Great Storm of 1987 >

30th January 2007
I presented an hour-long programme for BBC Radio Kent entitled 'Remembering the Great Storm'

Great Storm Special [1hr broadcast 31st Dec 2007] >

Rescue and tragedy in Dover

Published 011007 on the BBC Kent website
Broadcast as part of the 'Remembering the Great Storm' documentary on BBC Radio Kent
Video published on BBC Kent website and elements from it broadcast on BBC South East Today

During the night of the Great Storm, the Dover lifeboat battled against deadly winds and waves to rescue men from a sinking ship. This is the story of those involved.

For the staff at the Dover coastguard and RNLI station, there was no reason to suspect that the night of 15/16th October 1987 would be any different. The forecast after all gave no cause for alarm.

At about 5 am on the 16th, acting coxswain and mechanic of the Dover lifeboat Roy Couzens and the rest of the RNLI crew got the call. Reports of a cross-Channel ferry, the 'Hengist', having broken free of its moorings near Folkestone were causing real concern.

By this time, it had become clear that this was no ordinary storm: “one of the crew, as he came out of his house, his chimney fell down and went through his car,” recalls Couzens.

Sawn in half

But another ship was in graver trouble. The 'Sumnia', a 1,500-tonne general cargo vessel had lost power and was trying to use its anchors to steer itself out of trouble. Such was the strength of the wind, the anchors failed and the Sumnia struck the Southern Breakwater in Dover harbour. There were six crew on board. Stuck between the breakwater and pounding 60 ft waves, she was effectively being sawn in half.

The crew of the lifeboat 'Rotary Service' were having problems of their own. One of the craft's propellers had got caught on a submerged rope and it wasn't until a team of divers had braved the tumultuous waters and cut the rope, that the lifeboat was able to get under way, albeit with reduced power.

"There was no visibility whatsoever," continues Couzens. "To look into the wind was almost impossible without being shot-blasted by the spray".

Monster wave

Worse still, one of the western lighthouses had been extinguished by a monster wave. The harbour was now churning with foam and spray, a diesel barge was partially submerged and releasing its fuel, and the water was strewn with debris.

By 05:30, wind speeds were averaging 60-70 knots with gusts of up to 120 mph. Dover Coastguard's anemograph recorded a feather trace where the needle touched 135 knots, the strength of a category five hurricane.

The Sumnia was now in dire straits. Pete Legg was working as deputy watch manager for Dover coastguard and was struggling to track the vessel by radar. The Dungeness receiver had been knocked out by the winds and at Dover, the windows of the control room high up on the cliff top were bulging and cracking, opaque with salty spray.

"We lost the radar echo completely so I called the Sumnia up directly and asked them if they were ok. They were somewhat hesitant and then a voice said 'I think we're going over' - and that was the last communication we had with the Sumnia."

Capsize situation

At that time an enormous wave came over the lighthouse and washed two men off the forecastle of the Sumnia.

"I brought the lifeboat round and we picked the guys up on the move," says Couzens, for whom the decision to persevere with the rescue was instinctive.

"You are there for the preservation of life at sea. You wouldn't commit your crew knowingly if there was a chance of them going out and not surviving. The sea conditions were extreme but we still had four men unaccounted for..."

The Sumnia was now breaking up and being dragged outside the harbour. Conditions were horrendous. It was still dark.

"My second coxswain said 'Roy, watch this one' - and from my starboard side I saw the biggest wave I've ever seen in my life. It hit and sent the boat onto its port side and for a minute I thought we wouldn't get to the top of the wave. I thought we were going to be in a capsize situation."

"At that moment I saw daybreak."

Submerged

In the dim light of October the 16th, the Rotary Service fell 20-30 ft into the wave trough and for a moment was submerged. Couzens distinctly remembers one of the lifeboat's lights glowing green through the boiling black water. He also remembers the sharp pain as his chest slammed into the throttle: "If you can imagine dropping onto concrete from 20 ft, it was quite a shock. I thought I had broken a rib or punctured a lung."

The Sumnia disappeared and the four remaining crew jumped into the freezing, frenzied water.
The captain was never found. Another body was found two days later on the breakwater. The other two were swept back over on to the harbour-side.

Re-entering the harbour, the lifeboat spotted a life jacket with someone hanging upside-down inside it.

"One of the crew said he thought he was dead but I told him to get resuscitating - and they resuscitated him and he survived," says Couzens.

Trouble breathing

The Rotary Service landed their three survivors; the tug 'Deft' having picked up another. Although the crew were shaken, some in shock, and with Roy Couzens now in considerable pain, the lifeboat went out again to search for the two remaining seamen. But Couzens was now having trouble breathing and the acting second coxswain Michael Abbot returned the boat to shore.

"No one can foresee what's going to happen," adds Couzens, "and the way in which you cope with that is really down to the training and the caliber of the people you are with. Nobody once questioned that they weren't going to go out there with me and I feel very proud of that."

Back at the Dover Coastguard control room, it was time for a change of shift: "I never realised what damage was being done at the station until I went out at the end of the watch and found all the windows on my car smashed," recalls Legg.

"The whole thing had been pebble-dashed where pebbles had actually blown up over a 300 ft cliff and hit the car - we've never seen that before of since."

Roy Couzens had suffered a burst blood vessel behind his heart and lay recuperating in the bed next to one of the crew of the Sumnia, who owed his life to the crew of the Rotary Service.
For his outstanding seamanship, great skill and courage, acting coxswain Roy Couzens was awarded a Silver Medal by the RNLI. Each of the other members of the crew, acting second coxswain Michael Abbot and lifeboat-men Geoffrey Buckland, Dominic McHugh, Christopher Ryan, Robert Bruce and Eric Tanner, were each awarded a Bronze Medal.